Saturday, April 21, 2007

PRS not the same as drawing straws

I hate it when people use paper, rock, scissors to make a random choice-- when it is the equivalent to drawing straws. On more than one occasion I have been with a friend facing some situation in which one of us had to do something neither of us wanted to. How to decide who falls victim to the unfortunate act? Flip a coin? Draw straws? No, paper, rock scissors always comes up. Now depending how badly I want to get out of said situation, and how fair I want to be to the other person, I will agree or disagree to this. If I agree, I turn what should be a random choice into a definite outcome, and I take away from the skill game of paper, rock, scissors.

What do I mean by this? I mean I will not lose. I know my friends well enough that I will win every two-out-of-three games of paper, rock, scissors along with most one-shots. I know this because it is not a game of chance, it is a game of skill.

Poker comes to mind, a game of skill that involves chance. A good player will profit over a bad player certainly in time, but the element of luck can't guarantee a win for the good player in any one game. Paper, rock, scissors is even less so. It doesn't involve cards or dice or fate, just what you know of the other person. It requires even more of a "read" than poker does.

So here's a tip to improve your game. Until you get very good at predicting what your opponent will throw, focus on predicting what he will not throw. For instance, if he or she just threw rock and you know he wouldn't use it twice in a row, you should throw paper. That way you are safe, and have a 50/50 chance of winning the round.

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